Hillary Clinton will win

Hillary Clinton is going to win. As Intercept journalist Zaid Jilani often says on twitter, her chance of winning is pretty much 99%. The reason is that Hillary is actually running a campaign. Trump isn’t running a campaign, he’s just trolling everybody until election day is over, at which point he’ll try to start his own media network. Hillary actually has field offices in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and so forth. Trump has little to no field offices in many swing states. Her campaign is on the ground everywhere. Her campaign hosts voter registration drives so that people will turn out to vote for her. Basically, her campaign is organized and built to succeed on election day. Trump’s not running a real campaign, and has no actual interest in becoming president.

Secondly, I know the polls have tightened and it seems really close and Ohio and Florida and Iowa now apparently lean Trump but none of the polls seem to actually be polling millennials, which favor Hillary by a mile. Interestingly enough, Gary Johnson, not Trump, comes in second with millennials. And Jill Stein comes in third! Trump polls in fourth place among millennials. In other words, he’s screwed. Black people also favor Hillary a lot, as well as Latinos. Trump trails among college educated white people. He only leads massively in non-college educated white people I think. So yea, if the election were today, Hillary would win, and win safely.

Thirdly, we haven’t had the debates yet. Trump, if he can control himself and attack Hillary from the left on issues where is he is to her left, he’ll be able to land a few blows, but not enough to win the debates. All of his terrible policies and rhetoric will be brought up, which will doom him. That’s if Trump stays calm, which I doubt he will. If he’s his normal self, and doesn’t attack Hillary smartly, then it’s just not fair because Hillary will run so many circles around Trump in the first debate he won’t want to do the last two debates. Essentially though, I don’t see how in any Trump wins the debates. Therefore, as wrong as the polls may be right now, they will swing back heavily in Hillary’s direction once the debates start. The last debate is like a week or two before election day, not really enough time to change the momentum back to Trump following a trouncing in the debates.

So yea, basically, Hillary is going to win. She should win pretty easily. For now at least, anyone worrying about Jill Stein being a spoiler for Hillary needs to smoke some pot and chill out, seriously. Relax. Hillary is going to win big, no matter how many votes Jill gets, so don’t worry about it. I say all this as someone who on the majority of days prefers Jill.

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